28,441 SMASHED — THE NEXT NQ TARGET IS 31,436 | ES, YM, GOLD, DXY FULL WEEKLY BREAKDOWN

This past week was a fantastic one in trading, as the market performed exactly as anticipated 0:22. Specifically, our predicted target of 28,441, a -0.5 Fibonacci extension level for NASDAQ (NQ), was successfully reached 0:05. We will now dive into the charts to analyze what lies ahead for the coming week.

DXY (US Dollar Index) Analysis

For DXY, the stance remains neutral 0:49. The current price action is not conducive to involvement, and a clearer setup is preferred 0:55.

According to Commitments of Traders (COT) reports, DXY has shown a second week of accumulation 1:13. Ideally, three or four more weeks of accumulation would be preferred to establish a cleaner price action 1:22.

On the weekly timeframe, DXY is still respecting a weekly fair value gap. This gap is defined by the low of March 9, 2026, and the high of February 23, 2026 1:35. Price has rejected this level and formed a volume imbalance between the opening price of April 7 and the opening price of May 4, 2026 1:56. Given the current choppy price action, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines for DXY this week 2:35.

EUR/USD Analysis

Last week, it was noted that EUR/USD could move in either direction 2:49. Price is currently respecting the opening price of February 23 and the high of March 9, 2026 3:00. On the weekly chart, price appears likely to target the April 13th high 3:21.

Despite potential upward movement, this setup is not preferred for trading 3:39. There are other assets with cleaner price action that offer better trading opportunities 4:00. Therefore, the stance on EUR/USD remains neutral.

GBP/USD Analysis

The weekly chart for GBP/USD shows signs of rejecting a fair value gap and pushing higher 4:16. However, similar to other currency pairs, the preference is to wait for a cleaner price action before considering any trades 4:27. For now, GBP/USD remains untraded.

NASDAQ (ENQ) Analysis

This past week, NASDAQ (ENQ) followed our expectations. Price was anticipated to reach the low of March 1, 2023, or potentially the low of May 1, 2023, and interact with the high of April 29, 2026 5:04.

A key observation was a volume imbalance between the closing price of April 30 and the opening price of May 1 5:50. Price returned to tap the 50% level of this volume imbalance and reacted immediately 6:13.

Further analysis on the 4-hour timeframe revealed a fair value gap formed between the low of May 1 at 10 AM Eastern Time and the high of May 1 at 2 AM (London session) 6:35. Price had balanced the range from April 27 until May 1, with the exception of this specific May 1 range (2 AM high and 10 AM low) 7:23.

On Monday, May 4, price returned to tap the opening price of the May 1, 2 AM high and rejected immediately 7:59. This confluence of factors led to targeting the 28,441 level, which is a -0.5 Fibonacci extension 8:17. This trade delivered a "very perfect price action" and price has continued to push higher 9:12.

Economic Calendar for the Upcoming Week

Looking at the economic calendar (Forex Factory):

• Monday: No major economic drivers or "red folder" news 9:36. This day is anticipated to be a range day 10:17.
• Tuesday: CPI (Consumer Price Index) data will be released 9:45.
• Wednesday: Core PPI (Producer Price Index) is expected 9:53.
• Thursday: GDP (Gross Domestic Product) report and core retail sales will be released 9:57.

For Monday, the expectation is for price to potentially form an inside bar or a fair value opening, which could be used as a setup for a buy opportunity 10:17. The next actions will be decided after observing Monday's price action 10:51.

S&P 500 (ES) Analysis

S&P 500 (ES) also returned to the anticipated levels this week. Price came back to the fair value gap formed on April 29 and May 1 11:16. It tapped the lower side of this gap, retraced, and then showed a clear willingness to push higher 11:31.

The current level is 7421, and the target remains 7519 11:44. The outlook for S&P 500 remains bullish 12:01.

According to COT reports, there is a net long position of 64,000 contracts on ES 13:33.

Dow Jones (YM) Analysis

For Dow Jones (YM), the expectation was for price to return and test the April 29 and May 1 levels, which it did 12:24. Price closed below these levels, then re-entered the fair value gap, leading to the creation of a new all-time high 12:35.

However, YM appears weaker compared to NASDAQ and S&P 500 12:48. While still bullish, the target of 50,623 is still expected to be hit 13:00. It remains to be seen if Dow Jones will make a new high with the same strength as the other indices 13:16. The preference is to focus on ENQ and ES due to their cleaner price action 13:23.

Regarding COT reports, 6,000 new net long positions were added on ENQ 13:54.

Gold Analysis

Gold on the weekly timeframe is currently trading within a fair value gap formed between March 9 and March 23 14:31. Given this, it is preferable to trade assets that present a cleaner price action 14:47.

A buying interest in gold would only emerge under specific conditions: if price breaks above the April 13th high, then retraces back to that level to use it as support, and subsequently pushes higher 14:58. More precisely, the condition is a clear break and close above the February 13, 2026 high, followed by a retrace to use that level as support for a push higher 15:37. Until then, gold will remain under observation 15:18.

Weekly Outlook Summary

• DXY: Neutral. No trading decisions will be made 16:23.
• GBP/USD: Neutral. Not to be touched 16:34.
• EUR/USD: Neutral. Not to be touched 16:41.
• NASDAQ (ENQ): Overall bullish. A decision will be made after observing Monday's price action 16:50.
• S&P 500 (ES): Overall bullish. Similar to NASDAQ, a decision will be made after observing Monday's price action 17:02.
• Dow Jones (YM): Still bullish, but ES and NASDAQ exhibit clearer price action, making them more advisable to focus on 17:30.
• Gold: Will remain under observation. A buying interest will only arise if price breaks above the February 13, 2026 high, closes properly, and then retraces to use that level as support 18:04.